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Insights and Opinions About Global Investing
The Market Pulse
Institutional-grade macroeconomic, cross-asset,
and investment research designed to help investors,
advisors, and partners navigate global markets.
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2026 Midyear Update Preview
The first half of 2026 validated many of the dominant market narratives entering the year — resilient growth, AI-driven investment, and supportive fiscal policy. Yet beneath strong markets, the environment has become increasingly complex, shaped by persistent inflation, elevated deficits, concentration risk, and growing debate around monetary policy, fiscal dominance, and the sustainability of the current AI and liquidity-driven cycle.
LeoC, CFA
9 hours ago3 min read
Research Archive
Insights/Perspective/Trends
2026 Midyear Update Preview
The first half of 2026 validated many of the dominant market narratives entering the year — resilient growth, AI-driven investment, and supportive fiscal policy. Yet beneath strong markets, the environment has become increasingly complex, shaped by persistent inflation, elevated deficits, concentration risk, and growing debate around monetary policy, fiscal dominance, and the sustainability of the current AI and liquidity-driven cycle.
LeoC, CFA
9 hours ago3 min read
Are We in a Stock Market Melt-Up? Understanding the Risks Behind Rapid Rallies
Markets don’t always crash from panic—they can also rise too fast from it. As AI-driven stocks push major indices to record highs, investors are asking whether this rally is backed by fundamentals or fueled by momentum and fear of missing out. Understanding the difference between a melt-up and a bubble may help investors stay disciplined when markets become euphoric.
LeoC, CFA
5 days ago3 min read
Central Banks – signal vs. direction
Week 04 Market Pulse | Insights & Trends: Central Banks - signal vs. direction
LeoC, CFA
Jan 23, 20242 min read
The Market Pulse: US Trading Day 11 @jan 17, 2024
Key Points Trading Session Summary What are we doing? #PrudentInvestor #GlobalMacroMarkets
LeoC, CFA
Jan 17, 20241 min read
The Market Pulse: US Trading Day 10 @jan 16, 2024
Market Pulse: Macro/Market Updates
LeoC, CFA
Jan 16, 20242 min read
Global Macro/Markets Notes: Week 02 | Jan 07-13, 2024
Global Macro/Markets Notes to make sense of short-term financial markets movements in the context of hard data, facts, and reason.
LeoC, CFA
Jan 7, 20247 min read
Decoding Equity Risk Premium (ERP)
Equity Risk Premium (ERP). Understand how it gauges the extra rewards of stocks over bonds and why it matters in today's marketplace.
LeoC, CFA
Aug 20, 20233 min read
The price of US Treasury bills reveals the true risk of default
Decoding what the price of US T-bill are saying about the risk of default.
LeoC, CFA
May 26, 20232 min read
The Benefits of Diversifying Your Portfolio with Global Investments
Global investments can provide benefits such as reduced risks and access to a wider range of investment opportunities.
LeoC, CFA
Feb 13, 20232 min read
The importance of Brazilian Central Bank independence
The independence of the Central Bank is crucial to ensuring economic stability and predictability of a country's monetary policy.
LeoC, CFA
Feb 7, 20236 min read
Investment Policy and Strategy Committee: Understanding Its Importance
The Investment Policy and Strategy Committee ensures that effective decisions are aligned with the firm investment philosophy.
LeoC, CFA
Feb 1, 20232 min read
Global Macro/Markets Notes: Week 33 | Aug 14-20, 2022
Skeptical; the devil is in the details… Week #33 is here and with it, another edition of the Global Macro/Markets Notes. As you know,...
LeoC, CFA
Aug 15, 20228 min read
Global Macro/Markets Notes: Week 32 | Aug 07-13, 2022
[IR]rational? Welcome to week #32 of our “Global Macro/Markets Notes”. Here we try to make sense of short-term movements from global...
LeoC, CFA
Aug 8, 20228 min read
Global Macro/Markets Notes: Week 30 | Jul 24-30, 2022
The Debate Goes On… Welcome to another edition of our “Global Macro/Markets Notes”. As we look across currencies, bonds, equities, and...
LeoC, CFA
Jul 25, 20226 min read
Global Macro/Markets Notes: Week 29 | Jul 17-23, 2022
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation Welcome to another edition of our “Global Macro/Markets Notes”. As we look across currencies, bonds,...
LeoC, CFA
Jul 18, 20228 min read
Questions Surrounding a Rising Interest Rate Environment
After two years of ultra-low interest rates, more than ten years of above-average bond returns and over twenty five years since the last...
LeoC, CFA
Mar 30, 20223 min read
The Economic Growth and Inflation Matrix
Introduction During the inflationary era of the 1970s, investors scrambled to find an investment decision-making model that could not...
LeoC, CFA
Mar 4, 20224 min read
Global Macro/Markets Notes: Week 01 | Jan 03-09, 2021
Insights & Perspectives 2021 Outlook “Old and New Year – Be Bold” As we head into the first full week of the New Year, we again use this...
LeoC, CFA
Jan 4, 20215 min read
Tariff Troubles
On Top of the Radar Analysts and strategists from major research shops now see a greater disruption to US GDP growth from escalating...
LeoC, CFA
Sep 2, 20192 min read
Rates market share center stage as volatility of risky assets picks up
On Top of the Radar The inversion of the 2yr/10yr portion of the US yield curve (in other words, the yield on the 10-yr UST fell below of...
LeoC, CFA
Aug 19, 20192 min read
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